25 Oct U.S. Unemployment Drops to Lowest Rate in 50 Years

The U.S. unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been since 1969. In September, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, down from 3.9 percent in August. Continue reading this article from SHRM to learn how this affects the U.S. labor market.

Unemployment in the U.S. fell to 3.7 percent in September—the lowest since 1969, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The low jobless rate, down from 3.9 percent in August, is further evidence of a strong economy—employers added 134,000 new jobs in September, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record at 96 months. The continued gains run counter to economists’ expectations for a significant slowdown in hiring as the labor market tightens. Through the first nine months of the year, employers added an average of 211,000 workers to payrolls each month, well outpacing 2017’s average monthly growth of 182,000.

“This morning’s jobs report marked a new milestone for the U.S. economy,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at Glassdoor. “With good news in most economic indicators today, it’s likely the economy will continue its march forward through the remainder of 2018.”

Cathy Barrera, chief economist at online employment marketplace ZipRecruiter, pointed out that the jobless rate ticked down for all education levels. “Anecdotal evidence has suggested that employers have experienced labor shortages for entry-level positions, and the decline in unemployment for these groups reflects that,” she said. “More of those joining or rejoining the labor force are moving directly into jobs, reflecting the high demand for workers.”

The sectors showing the strongest jobs gains in September include:

• Professional and business services (54,000 new jobs).
• Healthcare (26,000).
• Transportation and warehousing (24,000).
• Construction (23,000).
• Manufacturing (18,000).

“Retail job losses—20,000 jobs—were widespread, and the leisure and hospitality sector lost 17,000 jobs, largely confined to restaurants,” said Josh Wright, chief economist for recruitment software firm iCIMS, based in Holmdel, N.J.

“We can clearly point to a slowdown in retail trade for the dip in [overall] payroll numbers in September,” said Martha Gimbel, research director for Indeed’s Hiring Lab, the labor market research arm of the global job search engine. “Retail trade had a strong first half of the year but has slowed down in recent months. In addition, recent Hiring Lab research saw a slight dip in the number of holiday retail postings, suggesting that the sector may struggle in months to come.”

Prior to September, employment in leisure and hospitality had been on a modest upward trend and the losses last month may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence.

The Department of Labor said it’s possible that employment in some industries was affected by Hurricane Florence which struck the Carolinas in September. Nearly 300,000 workers nationwide told the BLS that bad weather kept them away from their jobs last month.

“That’s far below the level in September 2017 amid hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but significantly above the average of about 200,000 over the prior 13 years,” Wright said. Upward revisions are likely, he added.

Wages Stubborn but Rising

In September, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 8 cents to $27.24. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 73 cents, or 2.8 percent.

“That’s down slightly from the 2.9 percent pace last month, but consistent with a steady upward trend in wage growth we’ve seen as the job market tightens and more employers face labor shortages,” Chamberlain said. “We expect to see that pace continue to rise throughout the holiday season, likely topping 3 percent within the next six months.”

Glassdoor has recorded strong wage growth in tech-heavy metropolitan areas such as San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.

“If the true wage growth rate is at or below 2.8 percent year-over-year, it is disappointing that it is not growing faster,” Barrera said. “Given how tight the labor market has been not only with overall unemployment below 4 percent, but particularly so at the entry level, we would expect wage growth to be higher. The labor turnover numbers suggest that mobility is lower than it historically has been in periods where unemployment is very low. This is one reason wages may not be rising as quickly as we’d expect.”

Labor Force Participation Stalled?

The nation’s labor force participation rate held at 62.7 percent.

“Looking at the labor flows data, the rate of movement of the civilian population into the labor force hasn’t moved much in the last couple of years, however, more of those folks are moving directly into employment rather than into unemployment,” Barrera said.

Wright noted that the number of new labor force entrants and reentrants going directly to unemployment was just 33,000. “This raises interesting questions—whenever we get a recession, how long will these reentrants and new entrants continue searching for jobs before leaving the labor force?” he asked.

The percentage of the population in their prime working years with a job also held around 79 percent, where it’s been for about eight months, Gimbel said, adding that the measure suggests that the number of workers remaining to pull into the labor force may be exhausted.

“The share of the labor force working part-time but who wants a full-time job unfortunately ticked up,” she said. “Any remaining slack in the economy may be concentrated in part-time workers who want more hours.”

SOURCE: Maurer, R. (5 October 2018) “U.S. Unemployment Drops to Lowest Rate in 50 Years” (Web Blog Post). Retrieved from https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/us-unemployment-drops-lowest-50-years-bls-jobs.aspx/